How will the 2010 Raleigh area real estate market be affected by the Spring season? Looking at historical data for the Wake County real estate market will give us some pretty good insight.
First though, how do we know Spring is officially here in Raleigh, NC? We could check the calendar. Or we could go with more scientific proof.
I thought about washing my car on Friday. Within 30 minutes of having that thought my car war covered with pollen. When the pollen is out here in Raleigh, Spring if officially here. You could also cite the temperatures being in the eighties for the past week. But the pollen thing is far more scientific.
Okay… back to the point of this article. So what impact will all the warm weather have on our still struggling real estate market? History tells us that sales will pick up now and peak out in July. Then there will be a steady decline as we move towards the 2010 holiday season.
The local Raleigh real estate sales data for 2009 supports this. Especially if you factor out the impact of the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. That credit expired at the end of November and an extension was not announced until the last minute.
First time buyers rushed into the Raleigh real estate market and did a pretty good job of driving sales up in the months of October and November. That can be seen in the chart below.
But my bigger point is that the 2009 Raleigh real estate market increased steadily from Spring until July, then fell off in August.
If you want more evidence that the Raleigh real estate market ramps up in Spring, peaks in July, and begins to decline in August, here is a chart from 2008. There was no tax credit deadline to skew the months of October and November.
And just in case you’re wondering if this seasonality of the Raleigh real estate market is continuing into 2010… we’re off to a good start for a repeat performance. Here’s 2010 so far. The upswing is definitely there.
What should you take away from all this? If you’re planning on selling your home, get moving. The time for your home to be on the market is now.
Another important thing that jumps out at me is that the Raleigh real estate market declined from 2008 to 2009. And 2010 more closely resembles 2009. At least that’s how it looks so far.
